What’s in the works
What has already left the lab, what is in pilots and what to expect by 2035. Forecasts come with the name of the forecaster and our confidence rating. Mastery is a direction, not a date.
AI
- Already working
- Agents work for hours: they write code, analyze data, operate a computer. Open models trail the flagships by months and cost hundreds of times less.
- In the works
- Reliability on long tasks: in tests of 300+ steps, the best agent completes one in five. AI in science: the first drug found by AI from target to molecule has passed phase 2a.
- What to expect
- If the growth continues, by 2027–2028 agents will succeed half the time on a week of an expert’s work.
Robots
- Already working
- Humanoids are entering factories: one or two operations each, dozens of robots per site. In the first half of 2026, about 19,000–25,000 humanoids were shipped worldwide, over 80% of them Chinese.
- In the works
- A single “brain” for robots: models that transfer a skill to new hands and new homes. Home humanoids with a remote operator.
- What to expect
- In 2026–2027 — 50,000–60,000 humanoids a year. A humanoid in every home by 2035 — low confidence for now.
Energy
- Already working
- Solar and storage are the fastest-growing energy in the world. Sodium batteries in production cars. Next-generation geothermal in commercial operation.
- In the works
- Fusion: SPARC is assembling its magnets, China’s BEST is being built for 2027. Small nuclear plants: Linglong One in testing, Rosatom building in Yakutia. Solid-state batteries — by 2027–2028.
- What to expect
- Fusion power on the grid in large volumes by 2035 — low confidence. Solid-state batteries in cars in small series — 2027–2028.
Transport
- Already working
- Robotaxis are everyday life in a dozen cities in the US and China and in the Middle East. Drone delivery — millions of parcels.
- In the works
- Driverless trucks on US highways, air taxis in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, driverless vehicles in Vietnam: pilots in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
- What to expect
- By 2035, robotaxis are commonplace in dozens of major cities in the US, China and the Persian Gulf — high confidence.
Timeline 2026 → 2035
Waymo — a million paid driverless rides a week.
China’s small nuclear plant Linglong One connects to the grid.
Humanoid shipments — 50,000–60,000 a year, mostly Chinese and for narrow tasks.
Fervo Cape geothermal plant — 100 MW, another 400 MW by 2028.
Tesla starts selling Optimus to outside customers.
First plasma at the SPARC fusion reactor; energy gain comes later.
Paid air taxi flights in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
The first cars with solid-state batteries, in small series.
Helion delivers fusion power to Microsoft.
Launch of Rosatom’s land-based small nuclear plant in Yakutia.
IBM Starling quantum computer — 200 logical qubits.
Vietnam’s first nuclear plant, “Ninh Thuan 1”, with Rosatom reactors, reaches full power.
Robotaxis are commonplace in dozens of major cities in the US, China and the Persian Gulf.
Humanoids in ordinary homes.
From absolute zero
A short glossary: read tech news without a translator.
- TRL
- NASA’s technology readiness scale from 1 to 9: 1 — an idea on paper, 9 — proven in real operation.
- Humanoid
- A human-shaped robot: it works where everything is built for people — stairs, doors, tools.
- Cobot
- A collaborative robot: it works next to a person without a cage and stops at a touch.
- AMR
- Autonomous mobile robot: it plans its own route through a warehouse or shop floor, without rails or magnetic tape.
- Lidar
- A laser rangefinder that builds a 3D map around a robot or car.
- AI agent
- A model that plans its own steps, uses tools and checks the result.
- Open weights
- A model you can download and run on your own server — DeepSeek, Qwen.
- VLA model
- “Vision — language — action”: the robot sees, understands a phrase and moves right away.
- Token
- A piece of text the model counts in; AI is priced per million tokens.
- BESS
- Battery energy storage system: batteries for a home, a factory or the grid.
- LFP
- Lithium iron phosphate batteries: they last longer and are safer — the standard for homes.
- Sodium-ion
- A battery with sodium instead of lithium: cheaper raw materials, better tolerance of frost.
- Perovskite
- A crystal for solar cells, added to silicon for higher efficiency.
- Tokamak
- A doughnut of magnets that holds plasma for a fusion reaction.
- SMR
- Small modular reactor: a nuclear plant assembled in a factory.
- V2H / V2G
- The car gives energy back to the home or the grid.
- Matter
- A shared smart home standard: devices from different brands understand each other.
- L4 robotaxi
- A car that drives without a driver within its own zone and its own conditions.
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